So what are the Odds of winning at Blackjack?
Odds are you’ve heard of odds (sorry about that – we couldn’t resist!)
In simple terms, odds are the chance (or likelihood) of something happening. In Blackjack, the odds should always be at the front of your mind when making betting decisions. By knowing if something is less or more likely to happen, you can make bets that are friendly to your pocketbook.
Blackjack is a favored game of gamblers due to its changing, yet relatively simple to follow, odds. Unlike games of chance that have set chances (like roulette), blackjack will shift odds depending on the hands on the table, and the cards that are left in the deck or shoe. By betting when the odds are favorable, some gamblers have managed to make a career out of something as chancy as playing Blackjack.
When blackjack masters think about odds, normally it’s the odds of a card showing up. For example, Carl Counter is really good at counting cards. He assigns a value to each card and as cards are dealt, he makes a mental note and subtracts and adds and adds and subtracts in his brain. When it’s his turn, he already knows the odds of a high or low card showing up. If the odds favor a low card being dealt, he’s more willing to draw another card. If the odds favor high cards then he’ll back away since he doesn’t want to bust. Of course, he’ll use odds to determine the likelihood of the dealer busting as well.
Even if you aren’t a card counter (and don’t admit to it if you are), you can still use odds to determine your betting strategy. For example, all else being equal, the odds favor you receiving a 10-value card. This is because in a standard deck, there are 16 cards with a value of 10 (Jack, Queen, King, and 10). So how does that affect your betting? Let’s say the dealer is showing an ace. What do the odds favor? They favor the dealer drawing blackjack and taking those chips away from you! Depending on your hand, you may just want to surrender or stand.
Of course you can use the odds to help you bet on big wins. Using the 10-card example, if you have two 5’s, then you may want to double down. Doubling down doubles your bet and gives you another card. Since there’s a good chance to draw a 10, why not double your bet when the odds look good?
So while playing a game of blackjack will never result in a certain win (they do call it “gambling”, after all), using the odds to help your decision could result in a heavier pocket full of money at the end of the night.
